The WAY Group Newsletter for Financial Advisers | September 2009

Uncertainty...

Hope for the best but plan for the worst!

Most folk like just enough uncertainty to keep life interesting but not so much as to make them over-anxious. Unfortunately, the current environment puts many people in the second camp.

We are currently facing a ‘flu pandemic and whilst most of us logically know that the chances of it affecting us very badly are relatively slim, we still hate the suspense of waiting our turn at the snuffles. This feeling is exacerbated by the Press, especially when they splash all over the newspapers that yet another apparently healthy individual has (sadly) died from swine ‘flu.

In the wider world the economic and stockmarket uncertainty is also corrosive. Unemployment is rising fast and has a long way to go yet, public sector, corporate and private debt levels are testing and house repossessions and bankruptcies are likely to continue heading northwards. A prime example is the news emanating from Lloyds TSB, which is releasing all its bad employment news incrementally (hoping we won’t notice the big picture). Its recent announcement, which takes target group redundancies above the 8,000 mark, is unlikely to be its last.

And again, the Daily Mail recently reported that senior Tories are now privately admitting that the aspiration to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million and scrap stamp duty for first-time buyers on homes worth up to £250,000 may be delayed because of the recession. One could say that Ken Clarke had already let that particular cat out of the bag in March but it was vehemently denied by the Cameron camp at the time. Personally, I am old enough to know that very few new governments fulfil their manifesto promises made whilst in opposition – and quite understandably so, since they construct their manifestos on grand assumptions which are often far from the subsequently discovered truth (once they actually see the books)!

This leaves investors very poorly served, especially those more elderly and wealthy individuals who should be tackling their Inheritance Tax (IHT) situation sooner rather than later. As one of my oldest and longest-standing friends likes to say: “Hope for the best but plan for the worst.” This is what I would recommend to all those taxpayers who are worrying about whether they should take action to avoid or reduce IHT.

Yes, you should take action. Take all the various steps you need to reduce your potential tax, including getting the 7 year clock ticking now and/or lending financial assets to specialist trusts at currently depressed values. If it subsequently transpires that the planning is not needed then any carefully considered planning can be effectively unwound. Using the right vehicles will incur little extra costs beyond the standard costs associated with establishing any other kind of investment strategy. This warning may sound alarmist but the uncertainty over IHT will be with us for at least another year – until the next General Election – and even then the news is likely to be negative for many years to come. And especially so at a time when there will have to be massive cuts in public services and across the board tax increases to re-balance the nation’s books.

The bigger uncertainty at the moment for most people is the state of the UK economy. Recent stockmarket rises would seem to imply that the recession is all but a thing of the past. And yet many serious pundits are warning of much worse to come. Logic does appear to suggest that the combination of sky-high debt levels across the public, corporate and personal sectors and the delayed effects of the economic slump have not fully worked through the system. With banks still re-building their balance sheets (and likely to continue to do so for some time), lending is not going to improve any time soon. Whilst many individuals and companies have been able to manage their deficits over the last year one can imagine that a continuation of the current credit and earnings drought will eventually take its toll.

My own view is that this cycle will, just as with every previous cycle, pass and we will see recovery. The uncertainty for everyone is when that is likely to happen. With the banks apparently terrified to lend to property buyers, entrepreneurs or even established companies; with southern and eastern Europe all on the verge of bankruptcy; with UK unemployment likely to sail through the 3 million mark leading to more distressed debt and property repossessions; with most stockmarket companies likely to slash dividend rates over the coming months and with the threat of a return of inflation just around the corner, the uncertainty will continue until at least the autumn and probably a great deal longer.

It seems appropriate to end by reminding you again of my friend’s apt catchphrase: “Hope for the best but plan for the worst!” And to reiterate what I’ve already said elsewhere, that this is what I would recommend to all those taxpayers who are worrying about whether they should take action to avoid or reduce IHT. In fact, I would only add one rider to all of the above: “- and do it now!”

As well as offering a wide-range of Inheritance Tax (IHT) mitigation solutions, WAY can provide your clients with family wealth preservation security over and above the 40% death duty. So if you have an interest in this area and haven’t encountered our arrangements before or even wish to discuss an individual client case, we’d be delighted to hear from you.

Yours sincerely,

Paul Wilcox
Chairman & Technical Director, WAY Group
1st September 2009.

Ends-

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How to contact us

We hope you found this IFA e-newsletter interesting and informative and that some of the issues raised will prove useful for developing business with your clients? If you wish to discuss any matters arising from this newsletter or, indeed, want to talk to us about any of WAY's products, then you are most welcome to call either Tony Lyons, IFA Support Manager, or Mark Benson TEP, Technical Manager , on head office telephone number: 01202 890895. Or, if you prefer, you can use the website: Contact Form to get in touch. We look forward to hearing from you.

Newsletter: September 2009.

Please Note: This newsletter commentary has been prepared for Financial Intermediary Clients and Professional Associates of WAY Investment Services Ltd and is not intended for and must not be distributed to Private Investors. This information is supplied to you in confidence and you may not pass it on to any other party without prior written consent. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns and changes in rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to rise or fall. No representation or warranty is given (express or implied) as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information nor the opinions, interpretations and conclusions contained in this commentary. The commentary does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any security. Neither the author nor WAY Investment Services Ltd accept any liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use of or reliance placed on the commentary. WAY Investment Services Ltd is an Appointed Representative of WAY Fund Managers Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.